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Kalmar W vs Norrköping W — Elitettan 2021

Kalmar W
Kalmar W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Norrköping W
Norrköping W
11/6/2021ElitettanElitettan · Round 25Gröndals IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kalmar W22%
×Draw22%
Norrköping W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar W
1.14
Norrköping W
1.95

Norrköping W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kalmar W
1.35
Norrköping W
2.12

allows per match

Kalmar W
1.77
Norrköping W
0.92

finishing

Kalmar W+0.00on par
Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar W ↓

Norrköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kalmar W or draw
44%
Kalmar W or Norrköping W
78%
Draw or Norrköping W
78%

Winning margin

Kalmar W wins by 2+
8%
Norrköping W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kalmar W 1+ goals
68%
Kalmar W 2+ goals
32%
Kalmar W 3+ goals
11%
Norrköping W 1+ goals
86%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
58%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kalmar W (draw refunded)
28%
Norrköping W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar W attack 1.35 + Norrköping W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.14

Norrköping W attack 2.12 + Kalmar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kalmar W scores more
22%
level
22%
Norrköping W scores more
56%

Norrköping W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalmar W vs Norrköping W

Norrköping W beat Kalmar W 2-0 in Elitettan on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Gröndals IP in Kalmar.