Kalmar W 2–3 Kristianstad W: Result & Stats

Kalmar W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Kristianstad W

J. Ayers 40' (pen)

P. Fischerová 4'

A. Miettunen 90+5' (OG)

T. Tindell 85'

É. Viens 22'

6/25/2023

Damallsvenskan · Round 15Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kalmar W13%

×Draw17%

Kristianstad W70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.50

Kalmar W

1.00

Kristianstad W

2.50

Kristianstad W creates 150% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 79 away

0.62

creates per match

1.78

3.23

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Kalmar W

0.62

Kristianstad W

1.78

allows per match

Kalmar W

3.23

Kristianstad W

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar W+0.00on par

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kalmar W or draw

30%

Kalmar W or Kristianstad W

83%

Draw or Kristianstad W

87%

Winning margin

Kalmar W wins by 2+

4%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Kalmar W 1+ goals

63%

Kalmar W 2+ goals

26%

Kalmar W 3+ goals

8%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

92%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

71%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Kalmar W (draw refunded)

16%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar W at home — creates 0.62, concedes 3.23 · 26 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar W attack 0.62 + Kristianstad W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kristianstad W attack 1.78 + Kalmar W defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kalmar W scores more

13%

level

17%

Kristianstad W scores more

70%

Kristianstad W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

P. Fischerová

22'

É. Viens

39'

E. Petrovic

40'

J. AyersPenalty

50'

A. Nilsson

64'

S. Olsson← F. Nilsson

64'

A. Andradóttir← H. Eiríksdóttir

64'

T. Persson← S. van den Bulk

68'

N. Karlsson← J. Ayers

75'

T. Sandén← J. Harrysson

77'

P. Fischerova

81'

V. Andersson← V. Nambi

81'

A. Hallengren← A. Persson

85'

T. Tindell

90+9'

M. Wangerheim← C. Wickenheiser

90+5'

A. MiettunenOwn goal

Kalmar

Kristianstad

33

Olsson

4

▼

20

24

13

27

▼

Harrysson

8

Nilsson

6

▼

Wickenhei

11

▼

Eiríksdót

9

⚽

Tindell

18

⚽

Viens

1

Koivunen

37

⚽

Fischerov

2

🥅

Miettunen

3

Cowart

8

▼

Nilsson

17

▼

Persson

7

Nowotny

6

⚽

▼

Ayers

20

McAdams

19

▼

Nambi

13

Rehnberg

Manager: J. Wedeborg

64'▲S. Olsson←▼F. Nilsson

68'▲N. Karlsson←▼J. Ayers

81'▲V. Andersson←▼V. Nambi

81'▲A. Hallengren←▼A. Persson

Kalmar W substitutes

11Olsson9Karlsson5Andersson22Hallengren12Landin99Strålman

Manager: E. Gunnarsdóttir

64'▲A. Andradóttir←▼H. Eiríksdóttir

64'▲T. Persson←▼S. van den Bulk

75'▲T. Sandén←▼J. Harrysson

90+9'▲M. Wangerheim←▼C. Wickenheiser

Kristianstad W substitutes

7Andradóttir14Persson29Sandén5Wangerheim12Pilblad23Andersson31Thyberg