Kalmar W 1–1 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Kalmar W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eskilstuna United W

A. Walker 38'

P. Nyström 45+4'

10/30/2022

Damallsvenskan · Round 25Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kalmar W16%

×Draw20%

Eskilstuna United W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

2.15

Kalmar W

0.97

Eskilstuna United W

2.15

Eskilstuna United W creates 122% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

0.62

creates per match

1.07

3.23

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kalmar W

0.62

Eskilstuna United W

1.07

allows per match

Kalmar W

3.23

Eskilstuna United W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kalmar W or draw

36%

Kalmar W or Eskilstuna United W

80%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

84%

Winning margin

Kalmar W wins by 2+

5%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Kalmar W 1+ goals

62%

Kalmar W 2+ goals

25%

Kalmar W 3+ goals

7%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

88%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

63%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Kalmar W (draw refunded)

20%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar W at home — creates 0.62, concedes 3.23 · 26 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar W attack 0.62 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.97

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.07 + Kalmar W defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kalmar W scores more

16%

level

20%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

64%

Eskilstuna United W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

A. Walker

45+4'

P. Nyström

54'

P. Culver← W. Finnman

66'

C. Nowotny← S. Rehnberg

75'

J. Bækkelund← E. Östlund

81'

83'

90+4'

90+4'

Kalmar

Eskilstuna

1

5

20

29

4

▼

Östlund

25

Okobi-Oke

14

Eckhoff

7

▼

Rombing

9

Jalkerud

16

Rogic

10

⚽

1

23

8

17

16

▼

6

2

15

19

▼

Nambi

13

▼

Rehnberg

14

⚽

Walker

Manager: D. Roufpanah

54'▲P. Culver←▼W. Finnman

66'▲C. Nowotny←▼S. Rehnberg

90+4'▲E. Smajić←▼V. Nambi

Kalmar W substitutes

4Culver7Nowotny10Smajić5Andersson9Larsson12Landin99Jungward

Manager: F. Bernhardsson

75'▲J. Bækkelund←▼E. Östlund

81'▲L. Duras←▼E. Rombing

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

21Bækkelund22Duras13Fraine23Vigholm26Karlsson24Alvin