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Kalmar W vs Älvsjö AIK W — Elitettan 2021

Kalmar W
Kalmar W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Älvsjö AIK W
Älvsjö AIK W
5/15/2021ElitettanElitettan · Round 5Gröndals IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kalmar W51%
×Draw22%
Älvsjö AIK W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar W
2.02
Älvsjö AIK W
1.45

Kalmar W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kalmar W
1.35
Älvsjö AIK W
1.12

allows per match

Kalmar W
1.77
Älvsjö AIK W
2.69

finishing

Kalmar W+0.00on par
Älvsjö AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar W ↓

Älvsjö AIK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kalmar W or draw
72%
Kalmar W or Älvsjö AIK W
78%
Draw or Älvsjö AIK W
49%

Winning margin

Kalmar W wins by 2+
29%
Älvsjö AIK W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kalmar W 1+ goals
87%
Kalmar W 2+ goals
60%
Kalmar W 3+ goals
33%
Älvsjö AIK W 1+ goals
77%
Älvsjö AIK W 2+ goals
42%
Älvsjö AIK W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kalmar W (draw refunded)
65%
Älvsjö AIK W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Älvsjö AIK W away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar W attack 1.35 + Älvsjö AIK W defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.02

Älvsjö AIK W attack 1.12 + Kalmar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kalmar W scores more
51%
level
22%
Älvsjö AIK W scores more
28%

Kalmar W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kalmar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalmar W vs Älvsjö AIK W

Kalmar W and Älvsjö AIK W drew 0-0 in Elitettan on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Gröndals IP in Kalmar.