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Kalmar FF vs Dalkurd FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
9/17/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalmar FF47%
×Draw27%
Dalkurd FF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.42
Dalkurd FF
1.00

Kalmar FF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
1.11
Dalkurd FF
0.80

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.21
Dalkurd FF
1.73

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
73%
Kalmar FF or Dalkurd FF
73%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
53%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
23%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
76%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
41%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
17%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
63%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
26%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
64%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.21 · 113 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.11 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + Kalmar FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
47%
level
27%
Dalkurd FF scores more
27%

Kalmar FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalmar FF vs Dalkurd FF

Kalmar FF and Dalkurd FF drew 0-0 in Allsvenskan on September 17, 2018.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.