Kallon Liberia 3–0 NPA Anchors: Result & Stats

Kallon Liberia

FT

3 – 0

NPA Anchors

12/9/2023

LFA First Division · Round 13Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kallon Liberia47%

×Draw22%

NPA Anchors31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kallon LiberiaExpected goals in this matchNPA Anchors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.53

Kallon Liberia

1.95

NPA Anchors

1.53

Kallon Liberia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

1.69

creates per match

0.83

2.23

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Kallon Liberia

1.69

NPA Anchors

0.83

allows per match

Kallon Liberia

2.23

NPA Anchors

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par

NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallon Liberia ↓

NPA Anchors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kallon Liberia or draw

69%

Kallon Liberia or NPA Anchors

78%

Draw or NPA Anchors

53%

Winning margin

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+

27%

NPA Anchors wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals

86%

Kallon Liberia 2+ goals

58%

Kallon Liberia 3+ goals

31%

NPA Anchors 1+ goals

78%

NPA Anchors 2+ goals

45%

NPA Anchors 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)

61%

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallon Liberia at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallon Liberia attack 1.69 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.95

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kallon Liberia scores more

47%

level

22%

NPA Anchors scores more

31%

Kallon Liberia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kallon Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff