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Kallon Liberia vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
FT
1 – 1
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
9/24/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 3Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kallon Liberia42%
×Draw23%
Invincible Eleven35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kallon Liberia
1.73
Invincible Eleven
1.56

Kallon Liberia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kallon Liberia
1.69
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Kallon Liberia
2.23
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallon Liberia ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kallon Liberia or draw
65%
Kallon Liberia or Invincible Eleven
77%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
58%

Winning margin

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
22%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
82%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
52%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
25%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
79%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
46%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
55%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallon Liberia at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallon Liberia attack 1.69 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kallon Liberia scores more
42%
level
23%
Invincible Eleven scores more
35%

Kallon Liberia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kallon Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kallon Liberia vs Invincible Eleven

Kallon Liberia and Invincible Eleven drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.