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Kallon Liberia vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
11/26/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 11Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kallon Liberia33%
×Draw22%
Heaven Eleven45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kallon Liberia
1.59
Heaven Eleven
1.89

Heaven Eleven creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kallon Liberia
1.69
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Kallon Liberia
2.23
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallon Liberia ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kallon Liberia or draw
55%
Kallon Liberia or Heaven Eleven
78%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
67%

Winning margin

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
16%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
80%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
47%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
21%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
85%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
56%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
42%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallon Liberia at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallon Liberia attack 1.69 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kallon Liberia scores more
33%
level
22%
Heaven Eleven scores more
45%

Heaven Eleven at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Kallon Liberia 1–5 Heaven Eleven

Heaven Eleven beat Kallon Liberia 5-1 in LFA First Division on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.