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Kallon Liberia vs Cece United — LFA First Division 2020

Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Cece United
Cece United
4/6/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kallon Liberia37%
×Draw22%
Cece United41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kallon Liberia
1.82
Cece United
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kallon Liberia
1.69
Cece United
1.58

allows per match

Kallon Liberia
2.23
Cece United
1.96

finishing

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par
Cece United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallon Liberia ↓

Cece United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kallon Liberia or draw
59%
Kallon Liberia or Cece United
78%
Draw or Cece United
63%

Winning margin

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
19%
Cece United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
84%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
54%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
27%
Cece United 1+ goals
85%
Cece United 2+ goals
57%
Cece United 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
48%
Cece United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallon Liberia at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Cece United away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallon Liberia attack 1.69 + Cece United defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cece United attack 1.58 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kallon Liberia scores more
37%
level
22%
Cece United scores more
41%

Cece United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cece United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kallon Liberia vs Cece United

Kallon Liberia beat Cece United 6-2 in LFA First Division on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.