Kallithea 2–1 PAOK: Result & Stats | Super League 1

Kallithea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

PAOK

G. Loukinas 90'

M. Alfarela 14'

K. Despodov 2'

3/9/2025

Super League 1 · Round 26Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kallithea25%

×Draw25%

PAOK50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KallitheaExpected goals in this matchPAOK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.61

Kallithea

1.07

PAOK

1.61

PAOK creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 134 away

1.11

creates per match

1.72

1.50

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Kallithea

1.11

PAOK

1.72

allows per match

Kallithea

1.50

PAOK

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kallithea+0.00on par

PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallithea ↓

PAOK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kallithea or draw

50%

Kallithea or PAOK

75%

Draw or PAOK

75%

Winning margin

Kallithea wins by 2+

9%

PAOK wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kallithea 1+ goals

66%

Kallithea 2+ goals

29%

Kallithea 3+ goals

9%

PAOK 1+ goals

80%

PAOK 2+ goals

48%

PAOK 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kallithea (draw refunded)

34%

PAOK (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallithea at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallithea attack 1.11 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

PAOK attack 1.72 + Kallithea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kallithea scores more

25%

level

25%

PAOK scores more

50%

PAOK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

K. Despodov

PAOK · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

K. Despodov

14'

M. Alfarela↳ J. Mejías

22'

Georgios Vrakas

44'

DemethryusPenalty confirmed

45+1'

DemethryusMissed penalty

45+5'

Miguel Mellado

45+5'

DemethryusGoal cancelled

58'

S. Schwab← S. Meïté

58'

S. Peña← D. Pelkas

58'

F. Chalov← Brandon Thomas

66'

M. Valbuena← A. Mercati

66'

K. Lebon← G. Vrakas

74'

S. Shoretire← K. Despodov

81'

Javier Matilla← M. Mellado

81'

G. Loukinas← M. Alfarela

81'

Vieirinha← Joan Sastre

88'

P. Soiri← Demethryus

90'

G. Loukinas↳ M. Ndiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KallitheaPAOK

Overview

29%Possession71%

16Total Shots12

5Corners7

14Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target2

7Off Target6

2Blocked4

14Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

227Total Passes560

156Accurate Passes485

69%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1