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Kalju Nomme vs Tallinna FC Zapoos — Cup 2020

Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nommeadvanced
FT
9 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Tallinna FC Zapoos
Tallinna FC Zapoos
I. Subbotin 88'
P. Marin 80', 35'
K. Usta 73', 53', 23'
A. Tamm 65'
D. Tjapkin 30'
K. Paur 18'
J. Orumaa 25'
8/18/2021CupCup · Round of 32EJL TNTK Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kalju Nomme94%
×Draw4%
Tallinna FC Zapoos2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalju Nomme
6.62
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.15

Kalju Nomme creates 476% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kalju Nomme
6.07
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.83

allows per match

Kalju Nomme
0.47
Tallinna FC Zapoos
7.17

finishing

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par
Tallinna FC Zapoos+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalju Nomme ↓

Tallinna FC Zapoos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 41% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
90%10%4.5
78%22%

Double chance

Kalju Nomme or draw
98%
Kalju Nomme or Tallinna FC Zapoos
96%
Draw or Tallinna FC Zapoos
6%

Winning margin

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
87%
Tallinna FC Zapoos wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
100%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
98%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
92%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 1+ goals
68%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 2+ goals
32%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
98%
Tallinna FC Zapoos (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalju Nomme at home — creates 6.07, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Tallinna FC Zapoos away — creates 1.83, concedes 7.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalju Nomme attack 6.07 + Tallinna FC Zapoos defence 7.17 → ÷2 → 6.62

Tallinna FC Zapoos attack 1.83 + Kalju Nomme defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Kalju Nomme scores more
94%
level
4%
Tallinna FC Zapoos scores more
2%

Kalju Nomme at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Paur
23'
K. Usta
25'
J. Orumaa
30'
D. Tjapkin
35'
P. Marin
53'
K. Usta
65'
A. Tamm
73'
K. Usta
80'
P. Marin
88'
I. Subbotin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kalju Nomme 9–1 Tallinna FC Zapoos

Kalju Nomme beat Tallinna FC Zapoos 9-1 in Cup on August 18, 2021.

Goals: K. Paur (18'), K. Usta (23', 53', 73'), J. Orumaa (25'), D. Tjapkin (30'), P. Marin (35', 80'), A. Tamm (65'), I. Subbotin (88').

The match was played at EJL TNTK Staadion in Tallinn.