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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Kalisz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalisz
Kalisz
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec46%
×Draw23%
Kalisz31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.85
Kalisz
1.50

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00
Kalisz
1.29

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.71
Kalisz
1.71

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Kalisz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Kalisz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
69%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Kalisz
77%
Draw or Kalisz
54%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
25%
Kalisz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
84%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
28%
Kalisz 1+ goals
78%
Kalisz 2+ goals
44%
Kalisz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
59%
Kalisz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Kalisz away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 2.00 + Kalisz defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kalisz attack 1.29 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
46%
level
23%
Kalisz scores more
31%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Kalisz

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Kalisz 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.