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Kalisz vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Kalisz
Kalisz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
8/19/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 5Stadion OSRiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kalisz44%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalisz
1.66
Wisła Puławy
1.38

Kalisz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kalisz
1.48
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Kalisz
1.27
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Kalisz+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalisz ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kalisz or draw
68%
Kalisz or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
56%

Winning margin

Kalisz wins by 2+
23%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kalisz 1+ goals
81%
Kalisz 2+ goals
49%
Kalisz 3+ goals
23%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
75%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
40%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kalisz (draw refunded)
58%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalisz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalisz attack 1.48 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Kalisz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kalisz scores more
44%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
32%

Kalisz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalisz vs Wisła Puławy

Kalisz beat Wisła Puławy 1-0 in II Liga - East on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSRiR in Kalisz.