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Kalisz vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Kalisz
Kalisz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
7/22/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion OSRiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Kalisz46%
×Draw24%
Radunia Stężyca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalisz
1.64
Radunia Stężyca
1.26

Kalisz creates 30% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 61 away

creates per match

Kalisz
1.48
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Kalisz
1.27
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Kalisz+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalisz ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kalisz or draw
71%
Kalisz or Radunia Stężyca
76%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
54%

Winning margin

Kalisz wins by 2+
24%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kalisz 1+ goals
81%
Kalisz 2+ goals
49%
Kalisz 3+ goals
23%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
72%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
36%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kalisz (draw refunded)
61%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalisz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalisz attack 1.48 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Kalisz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kalisz scores more
46%
level
24%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
29%

Kalisz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalisz vs Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Kalisz 1-0 in II Liga - East on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSRiR in Kalisz.