Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kalisz vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2019

Kalisz
Kalisz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
11/4/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Stadion OSRiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kalisz43%
×Draw25%
Olimpia Grudziądz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalisz
1.53
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.27

Kalisz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kalisz
1.48
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.26

allows per match

Kalisz
1.27
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.58

finishing

Kalisz+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalisz ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kalisz or draw
68%
Kalisz or Olimpia Grudziądz
75%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
57%

Winning margin

Kalisz wins by 2+
21%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kalisz 1+ goals
78%
Kalisz 2+ goals
45%
Kalisz 3+ goals
20%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
72%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
36%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kalisz (draw refunded)
58%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalisz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalisz attack 1.48 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Kalisz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kalisz scores more
43%
level
25%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
32%

Kalisz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalisz vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Kalisz and Olimpia Grudziądz drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSRiR in Kalisz.