Kalisz vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 68+ matches
Kalisz42%
Garbarnia Kraków33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kalisz creates 17% more chances
Season form · 104 home / 68 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kalisz ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kalisz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches
Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kalisz attack 1.48 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48
Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Kalisz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Kalisz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kalisz substitutes
Górnik Łęczna
Widzew Łódź
GKS Katowice
Bytovia Bytów
Resovia Rzeszów
Stal RzeszówGarbarnia Kraków
Olimpia Elbląg
Znicz Pruszków
Pogoń Siedlce
Górnik Polkowice
Stargard Szczeciński
Lech Poznań II
SKRA Częstochowa
Stal Stalowa Wola
Elana Toruń
Legionovia Legionowo
Gryf WejherowoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kalisz host Garbarnia Kraków on Saturday, 23 July 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Kalisz vs Garbarnia Kraków
Kalisz beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-1 in II Liga - East on July 23, 2022.
Goals: P. Giel (25'), F. Kendzia (65'), K. Kuczak (74'), B. Gęsior (89').
The match was played at Stadion OSRiR in Kalisz.