Kalisz 2–1 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

Kalisz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bytovia Bytów

10/10/2020

II Liga - East · Round 8Stadion OSRiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kalisz48%

×Draw24%

Bytovia Bytów28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaliszExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.22

Kalisz

1.67

Bytovia Bytów

1.22

Kalisz creates 37% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 35 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

1.27

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Kalisz

1.48

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

Kalisz

1.27

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalisz+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalisz ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kalisz or draw

72%

Kalisz or Bytovia Bytów

76%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

52%

Winning margin

Kalisz wins by 2+

25%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kalisz 1+ goals

81%

Kalisz 2+ goals

50%

Kalisz 3+ goals

23%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

70%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

34%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kalisz (draw refunded)

63%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalisz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalisz attack 1.48 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Kalisz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kalisz scores more

48%

level

24%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

28%

Kalisz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff