Kaliakra 1923 0–0 Septemvri Tervel: Result & Stats

Kaliakra 1923

FT

0 – 0

Septemvri Tervel

11/24/2018

Third League - Northeast · Round 14Gradski stadion (Kavarna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192332%

×Draw24%

Septemvri Tervel44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaliakra 1923Expected goals in this matchSeptemvri Tervel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.65

Kaliakra 1923

1.36

Septemvri Tervel

1.65

Septemvri Tervel creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 104 away

1.85

creates per match

1.60

1.69

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923

1.85

Septemvri Tervel

1.60

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923

1.69

Septemvri Tervel

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Septemvri Tervel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw

56%

Kaliakra 1923 or Septemvri Tervel

76%

Draw or Septemvri Tervel

68%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+

14%

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals

74%

Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals

39%

Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals

16%

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals

81%

Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals

49%

Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)

42%

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.36

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more

32%

level

24%

Septemvri Tervel scores more

44%

Septemvri Tervel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff