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Kaliakra 1923 vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
FT
1 – 0
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
11/3/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 11Gradski stadion (Kavarna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192360%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Ruse21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaliakra 1923
2.28
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.28

Kaliakra 1923 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.85
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.69
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw
79%
Kaliakra 1923 or Lokomotiv Ruse
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
40%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
37%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
90%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
66%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
74%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.28

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more
60%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
21%

Kaliakra 1923 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kaliakra 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaliakra 1923 vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Kaliakra 1923 beat Lokomotiv Ruse 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Kavarna).