Kalasin 1–3 Rasi Salai United: Result & Stats

Kalasin

1 – 3

Rasi Salai United

9/29/2021

FA Cup · Qualifying RoundKalasin City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kalasin12%

×Draw15%

Rasi Salai United73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalasinExpected goals in this matchRasi Salai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.88

Kalasin

1.13

Rasi Salai United

2.88

Rasi Salai United creates 155% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

2.25

3.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kalasin

0.75

Rasi Salai United

2.25

allows per match

Kalasin

3.50

Rasi Salai United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalasin+0.00on par

Rasi Salai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalasin ↓

Rasi Salai United →

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Kalasin or draw

27%

Kalasin or Rasi Salai United

85%

Draw or Rasi Salai United

88%

Winning margin

Kalasin wins by 2+

Rasi Salai United wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Kalasin 1+ goals

68%

Kalasin 2+ goals

31%

Kalasin 3+ goals

11%

Rasi Salai United 1+ goals

94%

Rasi Salai United 2+ goals

78%

Rasi Salai United 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Kalasin (draw refunded)

15%

Rasi Salai United (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kalasin at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Rasi Salai United away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kalasin attack 0.75 + Rasi Salai United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rasi Salai United attack 2.25 + Kalasin defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kalasin scores more

12%

level

15%

Rasi Salai United scores more

73%

Rasi Salai United at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Rasi Salai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff