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Kalasin vs Customs United — FA Cup 2018

Kalasin
Kalasin
FT
0 – 4
Customs United
Customs United
3/27/2019FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kalasin20%
×Draw17%
Customs United63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalasin
1.71
Customs United
3.00

Customs United creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kalasin
0.75
Customs United
2.50

allows per match

Kalasin
3.50
Customs United
2.67

finishing

Kalasin+0.00on par
Customs United+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalasin ↓

Customs United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Kalasin or draw
37%
Kalasin or Customs United
83%
Draw or Customs United
80%

Winning margin

Kalasin wins by 2+
9%
Customs United wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Kalasin 1+ goals
82%
Kalasin 2+ goals
51%
Kalasin 3+ goals
24%
Customs United 1+ goals
95%
Customs United 2+ goals
79%
Customs United 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Kalasin (draw refunded)
25%
Customs United (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalasin at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Customs United away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalasin attack 0.75 + Customs United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Customs United attack 2.50 + Kalasin defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kalasin scores more
20%
level
17%
Customs United scores more
63%

Customs United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Customs United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalasin vs Customs United

Customs United beat Kalasin 4-0 in FA Cup on March 27, 2019.