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Kalasin vs Chonburi FC — FA Cup 2018

Kalasin
Kalasin
FT
0 – 7
Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC
11/8/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kalasin12%
×Draw15%
Chonburi FC73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalasin
1.04
Chonburi FC
2.75

Chonburi FC creates 164% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kalasin
0.75
Chonburi FC
2.00

allows per match

Kalasin
3.50
Chonburi FC
1.33

finishing

Kalasin+0.00on par
Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalasin ↓

Chonburi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kalasin or draw
27%
Kalasin or Chonburi FC
85%
Draw or Chonburi FC
88%

Winning margin

Kalasin wins by 2+
4%
Chonburi FC wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Kalasin 1+ goals
65%
Kalasin 2+ goals
28%
Kalasin 3+ goals
9%
Chonburi FC 1+ goals
93%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
75%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Kalasin (draw refunded)
14%
Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalasin at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalasin attack 0.75 + Chonburi FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chonburi FC attack 2.00 + Kalasin defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kalasin scores more
12%
level
15%
Chonburi FC scores more
73%

Chonburi FC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Kalasin 0–7 Chonburi FC

Chonburi FC beat Kalasin 7-0 in FA Cup on November 8, 2020.