Kalaâ Sport 2–1 Stade Gabesien: Result & Stats

Kalaâ Sport

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stade Gabesien

A. Amara 83', 18'

M. Triki 55' (OG)

4/1/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kalaâ Sport43%

×Draw30%

Stade Gabesien26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalaâ SportExpected goals in this matchStade Gabesien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.83

Kalaâ Sport

1.16

Stade Gabesien

0.83

Kalaâ Sport creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.20

creates per match

0.73

0.93

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport

1.20

Stade Gabesien

0.73

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport

0.93

Stade Gabesien

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

Stade Gabesien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw

74%

Kalaâ Sport or Stade Gabesien

70%

Draw or Stade Gabesien

57%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

19%

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

69%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

32%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

11%

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

56%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

20%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

62%

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more

43%

level

30%

Stade Gabesien scores more

26%

Kalaâ Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kalaâ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

A. Amara

55'

M. TrikiOwn goal

83'

A. Amara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff