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Kalaâ Sport vs JS Kairouanaise — Ligue 2 2020

Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
I. Letaief 90+3'
B. Hanzouli 34' (pen)
F. Sellami 47'
H. Ben Helal 16'
12/16/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kalaâ Sport40%
×Draw31%
JS Kairouanaise29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalaâ Sport
1.10
JS Kairouanaise
0.90

Kalaâ Sport creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport
1.20
JS Kairouanaise
0.87

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport
0.93
JS Kairouanaise
1.00

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw
71%
Kalaâ Sport or JS Kairouanaise
69%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
60%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
16%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
67%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
30%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
10%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
59%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
23%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
58%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.87 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more
40%
level
31%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
29%

Kalaâ Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kalaâ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
H. Ben Helal
34'
B. HanzouliPenalty
47'
F. Sellami
90+3'
I. Letaief

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Kalaâ Sport 2–2 JS Kairouanaise

Kalaâ Sport and JS Kairouanaise drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on December 16, 2023.

Goals: H. Ben Helal (16'), B. Hanzouli (34' pen), F. Sellami (47'), I. Letaief (90+3').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira in Kalâa Seghira.