Kalaâ Sport 1–2 Esperance Tunis: Result & Stats

Kalaâ Sport

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Esperance Tunis

9/16/2020

Cup · Quarter-finalsStade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kalaâ Sport14%

×Draw24%

Esperance Tunis62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalaâ SportExpected goals in this matchEsperance Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

1.69

Kalaâ Sport

0.66

Esperance Tunis

1.69

Esperance Tunis creates 156% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

2.38

1.00

allows per match

0.31

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport

1.00

Esperance Tunis

2.38

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport

1.00

Esperance Tunis

0.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

Esperance Tunis →

0–010%

0–116%

0–214%

0–38%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw

38%

Kalaâ Sport or Esperance Tunis

76%

Draw or Esperance Tunis

86%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

48%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

14%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals

82%

Esperance Tunis 2+ goals

50%

Esperance Tunis 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

19%

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.00 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.66

Esperance Tunis attack 2.38 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more

14%

level

24%

Esperance Tunis scores more

62%

Esperance Tunis at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff