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Kalaâ Sport vs EM Mahdia — Cup 2019

Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
FT
2 – 0
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
1/5/2020CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kalaâ Sport42%
×Draw26%
EM Mahdia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalaâ Sport
1.43
EM Mahdia
1.21

Kalaâ Sport creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport
1.00
EM Mahdia
1.43

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport
1.00
EM Mahdia
1.86

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw
68%
Kalaâ Sport or EM Mahdia
74%
Draw or EM Mahdia
58%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
20%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
76%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
42%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
17%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
70%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
34%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
57%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.00 + EM Mahdia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

EM Mahdia attack 1.43 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more
42%
level
26%
EM Mahdia scores more
32%

Kalaâ Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kalaâ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kalaâ Sport 2–0 EM Mahdia

Kalaâ Sport beat EM Mahdia 2-0 in Cup on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Kalâa Kebira.