Kalaâ Sport 1–1 CS Hammam-Lif: Result & Stats

Kalaâ Sport

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CS Hammam-Lif

4/29/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kalaâ Sport40%

×Draw30%

CS Hammam-Lif30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalaâ SportExpected goals in this matchCS Hammam-Lif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.93

Kalaâ Sport

1.13

CS Hammam-Lif

0.93

Kalaâ Sport creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

1.20

creates per match

0.93

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport

1.20

CS Hammam-Lif

0.93

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport

0.93

CS Hammam-Lif

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

CS Hammam-Lif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw

70%

Kalaâ Sport or CS Hammam-Lif

70%

Draw or CS Hammam-Lif

60%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

17%

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

68%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

31%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

11%

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals

61%

CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals

24%

CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

57%

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

CS Hammam-Lif away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

CS Hammam-Lif attack 0.93 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more

40%

level

30%

CS Hammam-Lif scores more

30%

Kalaâ Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kalaâ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff