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Kalaâ Sport vs AS Marsa — Ligue 2 2020

Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AS Marsa
AS Marsa
M. H. Jertila 89'
O. Traidi 25'
B. Touati 21'
12/28/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kalaâ Sport30%
×Draw30%
AS Marsa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalaâ Sport
0.97
AS Marsa
1.16

AS Marsa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport
1.20
AS Marsa
1.38

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport
0.93
AS Marsa
0.75

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par
AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

AS Marsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw
60%
Kalaâ Sport or AS Marsa
70%
Draw or AS Marsa
70%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
11%
AS Marsa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
62%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
25%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
7%
AS Marsa 1+ goals
69%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
32%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
43%
AS Marsa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + AS Marsa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

AS Marsa attack 1.38 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more
30%
level
30%
AS Marsa scores more
40%

AS Marsa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
B. Touati
25'
O. Traidi
89'
M. H. Jertila

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalaâ Sport vs AS Marsa

AS Marsa beat Kalaâ Sport 3-0 in Ligue 2 on December 28, 2024.

Goals: B. Touati (21'), O. Traidi (25'), M. H. Jertila (89').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira in Kalâa Seghira.