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Kalaâ Sport vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ariana
Ariana
11/2/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kalaâ Sport50%
×Draw27%
Ariana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalaâ Sport
1.46
Ariana
0.91

Kalaâ Sport creates 60% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport
1.20
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport
0.93
Ariana
1.71

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw
76%
Kalaâ Sport or Ariana
73%
Draw or Ariana
50%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
25%
Ariana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
77%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
43%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
18%
Ariana 1+ goals
60%
Ariana 2+ goals
23%
Ariana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
68%
Ariana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ariana attack 0.89 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more
50%
level
27%
Ariana scores more
24%

Kalaâ Sport at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kalaâ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalaâ Sport vs Ariana

Kalaâ Sport beat Ariana 3-2 in Ligue 2 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira in Kalâa Seghira.