Kajiado 3–2 Vihiga United FC: Result & Stats

Kajiado

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Vihiga United FC

6/2/2023

Super League · Round 31Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado50%

×Draw25%

Vihiga United FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KajiadoExpected goals in this matchVihiga United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.11

Kajiado

1.64

Vihiga United FC

1.11

Kajiado creates 48% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

1.49

creates per match

0.80

1.43

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Kajiado

1.49

Vihiga United FC

0.80

allows per match

Kajiado

1.43

Vihiga United FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Vihiga United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw

74%

Kajiado or Vihiga United FC

75%

Draw or Vihiga United FC

50%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+

26%

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals

81%

Kajiado 2+ goals

49%

Kajiado 3+ goals

23%

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

67%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

30%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)

66%

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kajiado scores more

50%

level

25%

Vihiga United FC scores more

26%

Kajiado at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff