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Kajiado vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
1/14/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado30%
×Draw27%
Nairobi United43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.09
Nairobi United
1.36

Nairobi United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Nairobi United
1.30

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Nairobi United
0.70

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
57%
Kajiado or Nairobi United
73%
Draw or Nairobi United
70%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
12%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
66%
Kajiado 2+ goals
30%
Kajiado 3+ goals
10%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
74%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
39%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
41%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kajiado scores more
30%
level
27%
Nairobi United scores more
43%

Nairobi United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kajiado vs Nairobi United

Nairobi United beat Kajiado 3-0 in Super League on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.