Kajiado 2–2 Mulembe United: Result & Stats

Kajiado

FT

2 – 2

Mulembe United

4/6/2024

Super League · Round 26Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado47%

×Draw26%

Mulembe United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KajiadoExpected goals in this matchMulembe United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

Kajiado

1.52

Mulembe United

1.10

Kajiado creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

0.78

1.43

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Kajiado

1.49

Mulembe United

0.78

allows per match

Kajiado

1.43

Mulembe United

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par

Mulembe United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Mulembe United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw

73%

Kajiado or Mulembe United

74%

Draw or Mulembe United

53%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+

24%

Mulembe United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals

78%

Kajiado 2+ goals

45%

Kajiado 3+ goals

20%

Mulembe United 1+ goals

67%

Mulembe United 2+ goals

30%

Mulembe United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)

63%

Mulembe United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Mulembe United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Mulembe United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mulembe United attack 0.78 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kajiado scores more

47%

level

26%

Mulembe United scores more

27%

Kajiado at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff