Kajiado 1–3 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

Kajiado

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kisumu All Stars

5/19/2024

Super League · Round 32Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado45%

×Draw26%

Kisumu All Stars30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KajiadoExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Kajiado

1.50

Kisumu All Stars

1.17

Kajiado creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 107 away

1.49

creates per match

0.90

1.43

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Kajiado

1.49

Kisumu All Stars

0.90

allows per match

Kajiado

1.43

Kisumu All Stars

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw

70%

Kajiado or Kisumu All Stars

74%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

55%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+

22%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals

78%

Kajiado 2+ goals

44%

Kajiado 3+ goals

19%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

69%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

33%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)

60%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.90 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kajiado scores more

45%

level

26%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

30%

Kajiado at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff