Kajiado 4–1 Coastal Heroes: Result & Stats

Kajiado

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Coastal Heroes

2/10/2024

Super League · Round 19Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado53%

×Draw23%

Coastal Heroes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KajiadoExpected goals in this matchCoastal Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.12

Kajiado

1.80

Coastal Heroes

1.12

Kajiado creates 61% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 72 away

1.49

creates per match

0.81

1.43

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Kajiado

1.49

Coastal Heroes

0.81

allows per match

Kajiado

1.43

Coastal Heroes

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Coastal Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw

76%

Kajiado or Coastal Heroes

77%

Draw or Coastal Heroes

47%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+

30%

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals

83%

Kajiado 2+ goals

54%

Kajiado 3+ goals

27%

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

67%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

31%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)

69%

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kajiado scores more

53%

level

23%

Coastal Heroes scores more

24%

Kajiado at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff