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KajHa vs SJK Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

KajHa
KajHa
FT
0 – 5
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
5/26/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 4Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KajHa22%
×Draw20%
SJK Akatemia57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KajHa
1.29
SJK Akatemia
2.18

SJK Akatemia creates 69% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

creates per match

KajHa
1.45
SJK Akatemia
2.18

allows per match

KajHa
2.18
SJK Akatemia
1.12

finishing

KajHa+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KajHa ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

KajHa or draw
43%
KajHa or SJK Akatemia
80%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
78%

Winning margin

KajHa wins by 2+
9%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

KajHa 1+ goals
72%
KajHa 2+ goals
37%
KajHa 3+ goals
14%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
89%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
64%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

KajHa (draw refunded)
28%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KajHa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KajHa attack 1.45 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

SJK Akatemia attack 2.18 + KajHa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KajHa scores more
22%
level
20%
SJK Akatemia scores more
57%

SJK Akatemia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KajHa vs SJK Akatemia

SJK Akatemia beat KajHa 5-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani).