Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KajHa vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

KajHa
KajHa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RoPS II
RoPS II
9/28/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 21Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KajHa31%
×Draw22%
RoPS II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KajHa
1.56
RoPS II
1.96

RoPS II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

KajHa
1.45
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

KajHa
2.18
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

KajHa+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KajHa ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

KajHa or draw
53%
KajHa or RoPS II
78%
Draw or RoPS II
69%

Winning margin

KajHa wins by 2+
15%
RoPS II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

KajHa 1+ goals
79%
KajHa 2+ goals
46%
KajHa 3+ goals
21%
RoPS II 1+ goals
86%
RoPS II 2+ goals
58%
RoPS II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

KajHa (draw refunded)
40%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KajHa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KajHa attack 1.45 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

RoPS II attack 1.73 + KajHa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KajHa scores more
31%
level
22%
RoPS II scores more
47%

RoPS II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KajHa vs RoPS II

KajHa and RoPS II drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani).