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Kaizer Chiefs vs Supersport United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Supersport United
Supersport United
4/27/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 20Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs39%
×Draw29%
Supersport United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.15
Supersport United
0.99

Kaizer Chiefs creates 16% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 104 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Supersport United
0.97

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Supersport United
1.13

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Supersport United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
69%
Kaizer Chiefs or Supersport United
71%
Draw or Supersport United
61%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
16%
Supersport United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
68%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
32%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
11%
Supersport United 1+ goals
63%
Supersport United 2+ goals
26%
Supersport United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
56%
Supersport United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Supersport United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Supersport United attack 0.97 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
39%
level
29%
Supersport United scores more
31%

Kaizer Chiefs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kaizer Chiefs 2–1 Supersport United

Kaizer Chiefs beat Supersport United 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.