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Kaizer Chiefs vs Moroka Swallows — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
5/1/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs41%
×Draw31%
Moroka Swallows29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.11
Moroka Swallows
0.88

Kaizer Chiefs creates 26% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 62 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Moroka Swallows
0.74

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Moroka Swallows
1.06

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Moroka Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
71%
Kaizer Chiefs or Moroka Swallows
69%
Draw or Moroka Swallows
59%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
17%
Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
67%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
30%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
10%
Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
59%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
22%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
59%
Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
41%
level
31%
Moroka Swallows scores more
29%

Kaizer Chiefs at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kaizer Chiefs 1–2 Moroka Swallows

Moroka Swallows beat Kaizer Chiefs 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 1, 2023.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.