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Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
Preview
13:30
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
8/15/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3FNB Stadium
Big match
45%
Mamelodi Sundowns
model favours
27%29%45%

Mamelodi Sundowns have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs27%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
0.90
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.26

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 40% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 122 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.17
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.52

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.00
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.63

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
55%
Kaizer Chiefs or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
73%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
9%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
59%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
23%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
6%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
72%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
36%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
37%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 125 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.63 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.17 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.52 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
27%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
45%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Kaizer Chiefs 3 vs Mamelodi Sundowns 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Kaizer Chiefs
Balanced
Mamelodi Sundowns
Balanced
58%PossessionBiggest gap68%
84%Pass accuracy89%
12.5Shots12.3
1.07xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kaizer ChiefsMamelodi Sundowns

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Kaizer Chiefs
3
Draws
7
Mamelodi Sundowns
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%
1–10–00–11–21–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chiefs
LLWWD
Sundowns
DWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kaizer Chiefs host Mamelodi Sundowns

August 15, 2026: Kaizer Chiefs take on Mamelodi Sundowns in Premier Soccer League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kaizer Chiefs host Mamelodi Sundowns at FNB Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.