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Kaizer Chiefs vs Highlands Park FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
3/2/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Moses Mabhida Stadium (Durban)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs42%
×Draw30%
Highlands Park FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.18
Highlands Park FC
0.93

Kaizer Chiefs creates 27% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Highlands Park FC
0.83

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Highlands Park FC
1.20

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Highlands Park FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
71%
Kaizer Chiefs or Highlands Park FC
70%
Draw or Highlands Park FC
58%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
18%
Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
69%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
33%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
12%
Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
61%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
24%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
59%
Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
42%
level
30%
Highlands Park FC scores more
29%

Kaizer Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kaizer Chiefs 3–2 Highlands Park FC

Kaizer Chiefs beat Highlands Park FC 3-2 in Premier Soccer League on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Moses Mabhida Stadium (Durban).