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Kaizer Chiefs vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
12/9/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 5FNB Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs49%
×Draw26%
Black Leopards24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.48
Black Leopards
0.95

Kaizer Chiefs creates 56% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
76%
Kaizer Chiefs or Black Leopards
74%
Draw or Black Leopards
51%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
25%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
77%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
43%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
19%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
61%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
25%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
67%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
49%
level
26%
Black Leopards scores more
24%

Kaizer Chiefs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kaizer Chiefs 2–2 Black Leopards

Kaizer Chiefs and Black Leopards drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.