Kaiserslautern U19 5–0 Saarbrücken U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

A. Stavridis 81', 49'

M. Bauer 74' (pen)

M. Bangura 56', 15'

4/20/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 19Betzenberg Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1959%

×Draw19%

Saarbrücken U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.41

Kaiserslautern U19

2.42

Saarbrücken U19

1.41

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

1.86

creates per match

1.19

1.63

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

78%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Saarbrücken U19

81%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

41%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

38%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

91%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

69%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

43%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

76%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

41%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.42

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

22%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

49'

54'

56'

63'

L. Weis← H. Dorst

66'

D. Hoor← A. Basenach

71'

A. Lazzano← T. Wachall

74'

M. BauerPenalty

76'

K. Merk← M. Müller

76'

P. Nicklis← J. Aghajanyan

81'

A. Stavridis

Kaiserslautern

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽2

Manager: A. Bugera

54'▲M. Karas←▼T. Walker

66'▲D. Hoor←▼A. Basenach

76'▲K. Merk←▼M. Müller

76'▲P. Nicklis←▼J. Aghajanyan

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

KarasHoorMerkNicklisMiftariHeckWerner

Manager: E. Melunovic

63'▲L. Weis←▼H. Dorst

71'▲A. Lazzano←▼T. Wachall

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WeisLazzanoMagemaMagarDupréÖstlundFlausse

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 5–0 Saarbrücken U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 20, 2022.

Goals: M. Bangura (15', 56'), A. Stavridis (49', 81'), M. Bauer (74' pen).

The match was played at Betzenberg Platz 4 in Kaiserslautern.

Kaiserslautern U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 5–0 Saarbrücken U19