Kaiserslautern U19 1–3 Hessen Kassel U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hessen Kassel U19

K. Merk 50'

M. Suntrup 90+3', 87'

M. Agyekum 61'

8/22/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1980%

×Draw11%

Hessen Kassel U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.43

1.06

Kaiserslautern U19

3.43

Hessen Kassel U19

1.06

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 224% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 10 away

1.77

creates per match

0.50

1.63

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.77

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

92%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

89%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

20%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

63%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

97%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

85%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

64%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

65%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

29%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.63 · 62 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.77 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.43

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

80%

level

11%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

8%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Monteiro de Oliveira← M. Bauer

46'

N. Lorenz← M. Ludwig

50'

K. Merk

61'

M. Agyekum

63'

D. Miftari← M. Müller

63'

T. Tahiri← S. Yigitoglu

77'

J. Gremler← S. Petrovic

87'

M. Felmeden← M. Agyekum

87'

M. Suntrup

90+2'

F. di Giglio← F. Bindbeutel

90+3'

M. Suntrup

Kaiserslautern

Hessen

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Bugera

46'▲D. Monteiro de Oliveira←▼M. Bauer

46'▲N. Lorenz←▼M. Ludwig

63'▲D. Miftari←▼M. Müller

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

OliveiraLorenzMiftariHoorSaitiBaurHeib

Manager: A. Noja

63'▲T. Tahiri←▼S. Yigitoglu

77'▲J. Gremler←▼S. Petrovic

87'▲M. Felmeden←▼M. Agyekum

90+2'▲F. di Giglio←▼F. Bindbeutel

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

TahiriGremlerFelmedenGiglioBaltaGarciaKalbfleisch

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19

Hessen Kassel U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 22, 2021.

Goals: K. Merk (50'), M. Agyekum (61'), M. Suntrup (87', 90+3').

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.

Kaiserslautern U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19