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Kaiserslautern U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Kaiserslautern U19
Kaiserslautern U19
CANC
14:00
Darmstadt 98 U19
Darmstadt 98 U19
10/31/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 5Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1949%
×Draw21%
Darmstadt 98 U1930%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern U19
2.06
Darmstadt 98 U19
1.59

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19
1.86
Darmstadt 98 U19
1.56

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19
1.63
Darmstadt 98 U19
2.25

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par
Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw
70%
Kaiserslautern U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19
79%
Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19
51%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+
28%
Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals
87%
Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals
61%
Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals
34%
Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals
80%
Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals
47%
Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more
49%
level
21%
Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more
30%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaiserslautern U19 face Darmstadt 98 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Kaiserslautern U19 hosting Darmstadt 98 U19. Match starts October 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kaiserslautern U19 host Darmstadt 98 U19 at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.