Kaiserslautern U19 2–2 Bayern München U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Bayern München U19

M. Bangura 41'

A. Stavridis 29'

M. Sanyang 84'

G. Mamedova 75'

3/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Betzenberg Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1933%

×Draw21%

Bayern München U1946%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.13

Kaiserslautern U19

1.77

Bayern München U19

2.13

Bayern München U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 72 away

1.86

creates per match

2.63

1.63

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

54%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Bayern München U19

79%

Draw or Bayern München U19

67%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

16%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

83%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

53%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

26%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

88%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

63%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

33%

level

21%

Bayern München U19 scores more

46%

Bayern München U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

A. Stavridis

41'

M. Bangura

46'

D. Jonathans← M. Vinlöf

46'

M. Wenig← B. Dibrani

58'

A. Ibrahimović← A. Pavlović

72'

D. Hoor← J. Aghajanyan

75'

G. Mamedova

82'

M. Sanyang← G. Marušić

84'

M. Karas← N. Wettengl

84'

M. Sanyang

Kaiserslautern

Bayern

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: A. Bugera

72'▲D. Hoor←▼J. Aghajanyan

84'▲M. Karas←▼N. Wettengl

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

HoorKarasMiftariHeckMerkNicklisPetrica

Manager: M. Demichelis

46'▲D. Jonathans←▼M. Vinlöf

46'▲M. Wenig←▼B. Dibrani

58'▲A. Ibrahimović←▼A. Pavlović

82'▲M. Sanyang←▼G. Marušić

Bayern München U19 substitutes

JonathansWenigIbrahimovićSanyangDenkDresselSulley