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Kaiserslautern II vs Quierschied — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Quierschied
Quierschied
9/6/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Betzenberg Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaiserslautern II71%
×Draw16%
Quierschied13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
2.61
Quierschied
1.02

Kaiserslautern II creates 156% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
Quierschied
0.84

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
Quierschied
2.58

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
Quierschied+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Quierschied →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
87%
Kaiserslautern II or Quierschied
84%
Draw or Quierschied
29%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
49%
Quierschied wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
93%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
73%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
47%
Quierschied 1+ goals
64%
Quierschied 2+ goals
27%
Quierschied 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
85%
Quierschied (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Quierschied away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + Quierschied defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.61

Quierschied attack 0.84 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
71%
level
16%
Quierschied scores more
13%

Kaiserslautern II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Kaiserslautern II 0–1 Quierschied

Quierschied beat Kaiserslautern II 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Betzenberg Platz 4 in Kaiserslautern.