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Kaiserslautern II vs Karbach — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
1 – 2
Karbach
Karbach
4/22/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 5Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kaiserslautern II38%
×Draw24%
Karbach38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
1.56
Karbach
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.33
Karbach
1.80

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.33
Karbach
1.80

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
Karbach+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Karbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
62%
Kaiserslautern II or Karbach
76%
Draw or Karbach
62%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
19%
Karbach wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
79%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
46%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
21%
Karbach 1+ goals
79%
Karbach 2+ goals
46%
Karbach 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
50%
Karbach (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Karbach away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 1.33 + Karbach defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Karbach attack 1.80 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
38%
level
24%
Karbach scores more
38%

Kaiserslautern II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern II vs Karbach

Karbach beat Kaiserslautern II 2-1 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.