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Kaiserslautern II vs Hassia Bingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
0 – 3
Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
10/17/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kaiserslautern II57%
×Draw20%
Hassia Bingen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
2.19
Hassia Bingen
1.30

Kaiserslautern II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
Hassia Bingen
1.40

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
Hassia Bingen
1.73

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
Hassia Bingen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Hassia Bingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
78%
Kaiserslautern II or Hassia Bingen
80%
Draw or Hassia Bingen
43%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
35%
Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
89%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
64%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
37%
Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
73%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
37%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
72%
Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Hassia Bingen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hassia Bingen attack 1.40 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
57%
level
20%
Hassia Bingen scores more
22%

Kaiserslautern II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Kaiserslautern II 0–3 Hassia Bingen

Hassia Bingen beat Kaiserslautern II 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.