Kaisar 2–0 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Kaisar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

V. Sovpel 49', 29'

11/10/2024

Premier League · Round 26Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kaisar38%

×Draw29%

FK Tobol Kostanay33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaisarExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.03

Kaisar

1.14

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.03

Kaisar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

1.04

creates per match

1.19

0.88

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Kaisar

1.04

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.19

allows per match

Kaisar

0.88

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw

67%

Kaisar or FK Tobol Kostanay

71%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

62%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+

16%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals

68%

Kaisar 2+ goals

32%

Kaisar 3+ goals

11%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

64%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

28%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)

54%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 1.04 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.19 + Kaisar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaisar scores more

38%

level

29%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

33%

Kaisar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

17'

29'

41'

46'

49'

59'

A. Zhaksylykov← J. Kameni

63'

R. Costa← D. Henen

66'

S. Norbekov← E. Altynbekov

71'

K. Kalmuratov

78'

J. Kameni← V. Pryndeta

80'

I. Ivanovic← Z. Zhumashev

80'

E. Essien← T. Mosiashvili

90+2'

E. Tapalov← B. Galym

Kaisar4-4-2

FK3-4-3

11

20

10

3

8

6

16

5

55

15

1

88

17

44

6

5

77

⚽2

20

10

9

30

19

Manager: V. Kumykov

59'▲A. Zhaksylykov←▼J. Kameni

66'▲S. Norbekov←▼E. Altynbekov

78'▲J. Kameni←▼V. Pryndeta

Kaisar substitutes

11Kameni7Altynbekov18Pryndeta34Salaydin55Hayrapetyan3Tolegenov25Kobuladze13Sakhalbayev12Zangylyshbay29Makhan73Zhalmukan79Torekul

Manager: N. Zhumaskaliev

46'▲A. Gabaraev←▼A. Zuev

63'▲R. Costa←▼D. Henen

80'▲I. Ivanovic←▼Z. Zhumashev

80'▲E. Essien←▼T. Mosiashvili

90+2'▲E. Tapalov←▼B. Galym

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

18Zuev77Henen7Zhumashev13Mosiashvili51Galym35Melikhov27Mukhin4Abdulla25Bozhko21Tsonev

Match Recap: Kaisar vs FK Tobol Kostanay

Kaisar beat FK Tobol Kostanay 2-0 in Premier League on November 10, 2024.

Goals: V. Sovpel (29', 49').

The match was played at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva in Kyzylorda.

Kaisar vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kaisar vs FK Tobol Kostanay