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Kaisar vs FK Aksu — Premier League 2019

Kaisar
Kaisar
CANC
00:00
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
10/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kaisar51%
×Draw26%
FK Aksu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaisar
1.50
FK Aksu
0.92

Kaisar creates 63% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kaisar
0.95
FK Aksu
0.73

allows per match

Kaisar
1.11
FK Aksu
2.04

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw
77%
Kaisar or FK Aksu
74%
Draw or FK Aksu
49%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+
26%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals
78%
Kaisar 2+ goals
44%
Kaisar 3+ goals
19%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
60%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
23%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)
69%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 0.95 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.50

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + Kaisar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kaisar scores more
51%
level
26%
FK Aksu scores more
23%

Kaisar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaisar vs FK Aksu — Match Preview

Kaisar face FK Aksu on October 5, 2024 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kaisar host FK Aksu at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.